FIRE calculator:
how long until work is optional?
Enter your monthly expenses, what you've already invested and what you invest each month. See your FIRE number and how many years until your investments could pay for your life.
Year-by-year table
| Year | Invested | Growth | Portfolio |
|---|
How it's calculated.
First the target, then how long your savings take to reach it.
Your FIRE number is how much you need invested so that withdrawing a fixed percentage each year covers your expenses:
FIRE number = yearly expenses ÷ withdrawal rate
With expenses of 2,500 a month (30,000 a year) and a 4% withdrawal rate, that's 30,000 ÷ 0.04 = 750,000, or 25 times your yearly expenses.
The calculator then grows what you've already invested month by month at the real return, adds each month's investment, and stops when the portfolio reaches that number. Because the return is after inflation, everything stays in today's money: your expenses and your FIRE number don't need to be raised year by year.
The 4% rule comes from studies of historical US stock and bond returns, starting with William Bengen's in 1994 and the Trinity study in 1998: a 4% first-year withdrawal, raised with inflation, lasted 30 years in most periods. For longer retirements, or for more margin, many people plan with 3 to 3.5%.
- The return is the same every year. The order of returns matters: a crash just after you stop working does far more damage than one 20 years earlier.
- Expenses stay the same in today's money. Health care, children or housing often change that.
- No taxes or pensions. Taxes on withdrawals raise the amount you need; a pension lowers it.
2,500 a month, starting at 30.
These are the calculator's starting values, so the chart above shows the same run.
Expenses
2,500 a month
Invested today
50,000
Investing
1,500 a month
The portfolio passes 750,000 in month 242, a little after age 50. Of that, 413,000 is money you put in and the rest is growth. Two changes worth trying: at a 3.5% withdrawal rate the target rises to 857,143 and takes about 22 years. Investing 2,000 a month instead of 1,500 reaches 750,000 in about 17 years.
Frequently asked questions.
What does FIRE mean?
Financial Independence, Retire Early. The idea is to save and invest a large share of your income until your investments can pay for your expenses, so working becomes optional.
What is the 4% rule?
A rule of thumb: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year, then raise that amount with inflation, and the money has historically had a good chance of lasting 30 years. It makes your FIRE number 25 times your yearly expenses.
Why use a real return instead of the nominal return?
A real return is what's left after inflation. Using it keeps your expenses and FIRE number in today's money, so you don't have to guess future prices. Subtract expected inflation from the return you expect: 7% with 2% inflation is about 5% real.
Does it include taxes or a pension?
No. Taxes on withdrawals raise the portfolio you need; a pension lowers it. To count a pension, enter only the expenses it won't cover.
Is the calculator free? Do I need an account?
Yes, it's free and needs no signup. The calculation runs in your browser, and the numbers you type aren't stored or sent anywhere.
Know how far along
you really are.
Moneydy tracks your net worth, stocks and crypto in one place, and a savings goal shows your progress towards a target like your FIRE number. Try the live demo, no signup.